A weak area of low pressure has formed in the southeastern Gulf, just off the west coast of Florida.

The low does have a chance of organizing through the next few days, but it will struggle to strengthen. It may try to form into a sub-tropical depression or storm.

A sub-tropical system is a hybrid of cold-weather and tropical systems. The rain and storms tend to be well-removed from the center of the storm and it is often lopsided, with all the bad weather on the right side of the system.

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However, sub-tropical systems can also develop strong winds and can get named. Eventually, it is possible for them to grow into a full-fledged tropical system, but we don't expect this system to get much stronger than it is now.

At this time of year, water temperatures generally are too cool for tropical systems to form. Upper level winds associated with the jet stream are also too strong for developing storms.

The low will begin to move northward through the day tomorrow over some warmer water and send tropical moisture up to the northern Gulf Coast. This will help bring in higher rain chances to the area.

Our rain chances this week will depend on exactly where the low tracks. If it moves closer to the Big Bend area of Florida, we will stay on the dry side of the system, keeping rain chances lower. However, if it moves closer to us or just to our west, it could kick off some much needed showers and storms.

Most of the area is seeing abnormally dry conditions and any rain will help to relieve the developing drought conditions.

The bottom line is that there is a disturbance in the Gulf that we will keep our eyes on, but it will not bring any major impacts if, in fact, it does develop. It could actually be more of a benefit to the Gulf Coast, bringing higher rain chances.

With the Atlantic Hurricane Season only a few weeks away, remember to start preparing for a tropical threat just in case we do have a tropical threat this year!

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